Predicting COVID-19 Cases in Near Future in India Using Logistic Function

This paper is published by ITEE Journal, Vol 9, No. 5, October 2020. Find it on


On 27th August, the day of conducting this study, India reported the highest single-day increase of over 75,000 COVID-19 cases [8]. With the exponential increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in India, our lives are at risk. There is subsequent stress on our health professionals and administration as the number of cases is increasing every day and a large number of people are being unable to afford a bed in a hospital. It will be helpful for the administration if they have a predicted value of COVID-19 cases that we might see in future. Making important decisions by the government and other professionals will be easy if they have an overview of how much the disease is likely to spread in the near future. We used a dataset that has daily recorded COVID-19 data, from 30th January 2020, when the first COVID-19 case was reported in India, to 27th August 2020. I used Logistic function to predict the number of COVID-19 cases we might see in future, in India. The prediction is based on only the recorded increment in COVID-19 cases daily in India.


[1] Hamzah, FA Binti, C. Lau, H. Nazri, D. V. Ligot, G. Lee, and C. L. Tan. “CoronaTracker: worldwide COVID-19 outbreak data analysis and prediction.” Bull World Health Organ 1 (2020): 32.

[2] Tomar, Anuradha, and Neeraj Gupta. “Prediction for the spread of COVID-19 in India and effectiveness of preventive measures.” Science of The Total Environment (2020): 138762.

[3] Qin, Lei, Qiang Sun, Yidan Wang, Ke-Fei Wu, Mingchih Chen, Ben-Chang Shia, and Szu-Yuan Wu. “Prediction of number of cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) using social media search index.” International journal of environmental research and public health 17, no. 7 (2020): 2365.

[4] Yang, Zifeng, Zhiqi Zeng, Ke Wang, Sook-San Wong, Wenhua Liang, Mark Zanin, Peng Liu et al. “Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions.” Journal of Thoracic Disease 12, no. 3 (2020): 165.

[5] “Logistic function,” Wikipedia, 25-Aug-2020. [Online]. Available: [Accessed: 27-Aug-2020].

[6] Srk, “COVID-19 in India,” Kaggle, 27-Aug-2020. [Online]. Available: [Accessed: 27-Aug-2020].

[7] “Update on Novel Coronavirus: one positive case reported in Kerala,” Press Information Bureau. [Online]. Available: [Accessed: 27-Aug-2020].

[8] “Coronavirus India Updates, August 27: Containment zones likely to increase in Delhi; tally in AP inches closer to 4 lakh mark,” The Indian Express, 27-Aug-2020. [Online]. Available: [Accessed: 27-Aug-2020].

[9] “Countries where COVID-19 has spread,” Worldometer. [Online]. Available: [Accessed: 27-Aug-2020].

[10] “Coronavirus in India: Latest Map and Case Count,” Coronavirus Outbreak in India. [Online]. Available: [Accessed: 28-Aug-2020].



Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store